Day trading for a living

The research was done by AI agents that open web pages. Some sites refuse them; where that happened we say so. The small numbers point to the source list at the end. Where a figure is our own sum or guess, it is marked “our estimate” and the basis is given.

The claim

These are examples of the claim, copied from our collection of 11 tweets on this scheme¹. View counts are as collected. Dates are worked out from each tweet’s ID number. The texts were cut off in our collection, so each quote is marked as truncated, and we did not view the images, videos or threads attached to any of them. The page judges the scheme, not the people who tweeted.

“Claude came up with a dead simple NQ trend strategy. 71% winners, profit factor 3.24. No sweeps. No FVGs. Just trend continuation, confirmed on 3 higher timeframes.” (truncated)

@RHerman, 5 October 2026, 26,756 views¹

“first off, i’m up +48.7R from February till now. that’s an average of +9.74R per month, with every trade taken live on stream all livestream recordings are available on my Whop to verify.” (truncated at both ends)

@TritonTrades, 5 July 2026, 11,038 views¹

“the traders making $50k/month and the traders making $0/month are looking at the exact same charts the difference isn’t knowledge. it’s not discipline. it’s not “psychology.” it’s that broke traders trade PRICE and rich traders trade themself” (truncated)

@L2WTrades, 6 October 2026, 1,078 views¹

“I’ve also said that you will be able to copy my system and trade just like me by going through my YouTube channel and watching my livestreams, completely for free.” (truncated)

@JonatanRandin, 4 May 2023, 1,835 views¹

Some notes on these. “Sweeps” and “FVGs” are names for chart patterns, and “higher timeframes” means charts where each bar covers a longer stretch of time. Whop is a site where creators sell memberships. The third tweet uses $50,000 a month as a comparison, not as its author’s own result. The fourth is from 2023, states no income figure, and offers its material free¹.

The plainest version of the claim in the collection comes from a small account, which we paraphrase and do not name: $400 a day on every available trading day comes to $10,000 a month, and it is not hard, only a matter of focus¹. Another small account shares a video about going from $0 to $10,000 a month in crypto¹.

This is a small collection. It holds 11 tweets, and only some state an income¹. So the page also rests on how the method is promoted generally: a daily profit target, a win rate, or a monthly total, with a system, a coach or a community behind it.

What the scheme is

Day trading means buying and selling within the same day, hoping to keep the difference. Nothing is held overnight. People do it in shares, in foreign currencies (forex), in crypto and in futures. A future is a contract whose value follows something else, such as a stock index. “NQ” in one of the tweets is the future that follows the Nasdaq-100 index of large US technology shares.

The promise is that a set of rules (a “system”, a “model” or a “strategy”) can turn this into a steady income, and that the rules can be taught. The teaching is sold as a course, a coaching programme, a set of chart indicators (software that draws signals on a price chart), or a paid community where a trader streams live and members follow along.

A newer route sits beside it: the “prop firm”, short for proprietary trading firm. A newcomer pays a fee to take a test, called an evaluation or challenge, on a practice account. Pass, and the firm gives a “funded” account and shares any profit. One account in our collection carries a prop firm’s code¹.

Day trading is legal, the markets are real, and some people do earn from it. The questions are how much money and skill the claimed income needs, and how many people reach it.

The arithmetic

The sums in this section are our own and are listed together as source⁵⁷.

Step 1: count the trading days

The New York Stock Exchange lists 10 full-day holiday closures in 2026². The year has 261 weekdays, so that leaves 251 trading days, or about 20.9 a month (our sum: 251 / 12).

$400 on every one of those days is $100,400 over the year, or about $8,370 a month, not $10,000 (our sum: $100,400 / 12)².

These are our sums: the monthly figure divided by 20.9 trading days². They are before any losing day, fee or tax.

Step 2: allow for losing days

No trader wins every day. Here is an illustration; it is our estimate, not a measured figure. Suppose a trader wins on 6 days in 10, and a losing day costs as much as a winning day makes. Then the average day earns one fifth of a winning day (0.6 minus 0.4). To average $400 a day, each winning day must make $2,000, and each losing day loses $2,000.

So “$400 a day” is not a daily wage. It is the average of much larger swings. The Brazilian study in Step 6 shows this in real records: the best trader in a group of about 1,550 averaged $310 a day with a standard deviation of $2,560 a day⁸. Standard deviation is a measure of how far a typical day sits from the average.

Step 3: what $400 a day means in the market

One quoted tweet names Nasdaq futures (NQ), so we use that market for the example¹. The exchange, CME, lists the contract unit of the small contract, the Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (written MNQ), as “$2 x Nasdaq-100 Index” and that of the full-size E-mini as “$20 x Nasdaq-100 Index”⁷. So one micro contract gains or loses $2 for each point the index moves, and the full-size contract $20.

On that basis, $400 is 200 index points caught on one micro contract, or 20 points on ten micro contracts or on one full-size contract (our sum)⁷. No tweet in our collection says how many contracts are traded or how many points are needed¹.

Step 4: the money needed to start is small

This is why the claim sounds reachable.

• US shares. Until this year a US customer needed $25,000 to day trade shares often. The regulator FINRA has replaced that rule. Its notice says the new intraday margin standards replace “the $25,000 pattern day trader minimum equity requirement”, effective 4 June 2026, with brokers allowed a phase-in period ending 20 October 2027³. FINRA’s page for investors now gives only the general floor: “you must maintain a minimum of $2,000 in equity in your margin account”⁴. Margin means money borrowed from the broker. Some brokers may still apply the old rule during the phase-in; we did not check how many.
• Futures. One broker, NinjaTrader, lists a $100 deposit to hold one MNQ contract during the day, against roughly $4,225 to $4,647 to hold it overnight⁶. The column labels were missing from the text we extracted, so that reading is ours, and it is the broker’s European price page.
• Prop firms. A test costs from $49 a month at one large firm²⁴. See Step 8.

A small deposit that controls a large position is called leverage. It makes $400 a day possible on a small account. It makes losing the whole account equally near. FINRA says “frequent trading with margin remains a high-risk activity”⁵.

Step 5: the return the claim needs

Cheap entry does not change the return required. $400 a day is $100,400 a year (Step 1).

These are our sums, without compounding (that is, without reinvesting each day’s gain).

There is one measured figure to set beside them. In the complete records of Taiwan’s stock exchange, the 500 best day traders of one year went on to earn 28.1 basis points a day after fees the next year¹¹. A basis point is one hundredth of one percent, so that is 0.281%. Those 500 were the best of about 360,000 day traders¹¹.

That 0.281% is not a return on the money in the account. The paper measures profit against “the cost of initiating the position (i.e., the value of stocks bought or sold short)”, meaning the value of the positions opened that day¹¹. At that rate, $400 a day needs about $142,000 of positions opened every day (our estimate: $400 / 0.281%). A trader does not have to own $142,000 to do that. Leverage, or using the same money several times in a day, lets a smaller account reach that size, and the paper says “we do not know the extent to which traders use leverage, which would increase the magnitude of returns for both gains and losses”¹¹. The same leverage makes each day’s swing larger against a small account. Comparing Taiwanese shares with US futures is rough, but it gives a sense of scale.

Step 6: how many people reach it

No source we found gives the share of day traders who earn $1,000 or $10,000 a month. The nearest evidence is in the next section. The most direct comparison is from Brazil. Researchers looked at everyone who began day trading index futures there between 2013 and 2015 and kept going for at least 300 days. They found that “97% of them lost money, only 0.4% earned more than a bank teller (US$54 per day), and the top individual earned only US$310 per day with great risk”⁸. A summary of the paper gives the group’s size: 19,646 people started, and 1,551 of them traded on more than 300 days⁶¹. That is secondary; we read only the paper’s abstract.

The dollar figures are the authors’ conversion from Brazilian reais and are from 2013 to 2015, so they are not directly comparable with a US claim made in 2026.

The best of that group of about 1,550 averaged less than the $400 a day that the claim calls not hard. It is one group in one market, not a ceiling. In an older US sample of 324 day traders, “the most profitable trader made more than $197,000” over a period of up to 21 months¹⁸. Spread over the whole period that is about $450 a trading day (our estimate: $197,000 / 439 trading days).

Step 7: costs on every trade

A broker charges on each trade, win or lose. NinjaTrader publishes commissions “per side” (once to open, once to close) of $0.39 for a micro contract on its free plan, $0.29 on a $99-a-month plan and $0.09 on a $1,499 one-time plan, and says “Exchange, clearing, and NFA fees apply” on top⁶.

Ten micro contracts traded five times a day on the free plan is about $39 a day in commission, or roughly $815 a month, before exchange fees (our estimate: 10 x 5 x $0.78 x 20.9)⁶.

Charting software is extra. TradingView’s four paid plans were shown at 12.95, 29.95, 59.95 and 199.95 a month when billed yearly, with live data from exchanges sold separately⁵². Paying month by month costs more: 14.95 for the lowest plan⁵². Our agents were shown these prices in euros and in dollars, so we give the numbers without a currency.

None of the 11 tweets subtracts fees from its figure¹. FINRA’s standard risk statement for customers says “Day trading will generate substantial commissions, even if the per trade cost is low”⁵⁶.

Step 8: the prop firm version

Here the sums change, because the trader risks a fee and not a deposit.

The labels “$50K”, “$100K” and “$150K” on these tests are nominal sizes of a practice account. They are not money given to the trader. Topstep’s pricing page shows $49, $99 and $199 a month for those three sizes, a $149 fee on passing, a reset fee equal to the monthly price, and a split in which the trader keeps 90%²⁴. The page has a second plan labelled “No Activation Fee”; the higher prices also shown ($85 and $129) appear to belong to it, and the $149 fee to the Standard plan. We could not confirm the pairing. The profit targets are $3,000, $6,000 and $9,000 and the maximum allowed loss is $2,000, $3,000 and $4,500²⁴.

So the number that matters is not “$50K”. It is the $2,000 the account may lose before it closes. To take home $10,000 a month at a 90% split needs $11,111 of trading profit (our sum). That is about 5.6 times the allowed loss on that account, every month.

Withdrawals are capped too. Topstep’s payout policy has two paths on its simulated “Express Funded Account”²⁵. The Standard path requires “5 winning days of $150+ Net P&L” per request (Net P&L is profit after fees) and caps each request at $2,000 on the $50K account, $3,000 on the $100K and $5,000 on the $150K. The Consistency path requires 3 trading days in which the largest day is no more than 40% of the total profit, with caps of $3,000, $4,000 and $6,000. On both, a request is limited to “50% of your account balance up to the cap”²⁵. Caps double ($4,000 to $12,000) for traders who add a daily loss limit at purchase, which Topstep calls a limited-time offer²⁵.

The policy adds: “After each Payout: Your Maximum Loss Limit (MLL) resets to $0 permanently”²⁵. We read that as meaning the account then closes if its balance falls back to its starting level, but that is our reading of one line.

Tradeify, the firm whose code appears in one collected profile according to our collection file¹, showed a one-time price of $251 (crossed out from $359), a $1,000 loss limit and a $600 daily loss limit on its 25K test²⁰. The $251 was shown as a “35% OFF” sale price. Its price cards contained placeholder text and the same figures on every size, so treat these as unconfirmed.

Step 9: R multiples and backtests

Two of the quoted tweets use trader shorthand.

“R” is the amount risked on one trade. “+9.74R a month” means the month’s profit was 9.74 times that amount¹. It becomes dollars only when you know R. For 9.74R to be $10,000, R must be about $1,027 (our sum). At the common practice of risking 1% of the account per trade, that is an account of about $103,000 (our estimate). On a prop account that may lose only $1,000, it is the whole allowance on a single trade. The tweet does not give R in dollars¹. It says recordings are available to check; we did not open them.

“71% winners, profit factor 3.24” are figures for a strategy the tweet says was newly written¹. The collected text does not say whether they come from a test over past prices (a backtest) or from trades made with money. Figures of this kind for a newly written strategy are usually a backtest (our understanding), and we did not view the attached image. Profit factor is total winnings divided by total losses. Together the two numbers mean the average winning trade was about 1.32 times the average losing trade (our sum: 3.24 x 0.29 / 0.71). The collected text gives no number of trades, test period or costs¹. Where results are hypothetical, US rules oblige registered trading advisers who show them to add a warning that they “are designed with the benefit of hindsight” and that “No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown”⁴¹. We did not assess whether that rule applies to any account here.

Step 10: tax

The sums above are before tax. In the US, the tax office says that for an investor who is not a qualifying trader, net losses can be set against other income only up to “the lesser of $3,000 ($1,500 if married filing separately) or your total net loss” a year⁴⁶. Futures follow different US tax rules, which we did not open.

What the tweets leave out

The tweets give daily targets, win rates, R multiples and monthly totals¹. In the text we collected, none gives the account size, the dollars risked per trade, the number of trades, the losing days, the fees, or whether the account is real money or a practice account¹. The texts are cut off and we did not view the attached images, videos or threads, so some of this may be there.

What people who tried it report

We found no usable first-person income report or failure write-up with numbers. Reddit refused our agents, and searches for journalism that followed traders over time returned nothing. What follows is records, not stories, and for a question like this records are better.

Where researchers saw every account

• Brazil, futures, 2013 to 2015. Of those who persisted 300 days or more, 97% lost money and 0.4% earned more than $54 a day. The authors add: “We find no evidence of learning by day trading”⁸. We read the abstract, not the full paper. A summary of the paper says 19,646 people started and 1,551 traded on more than 300 days, and that the share ahead after costs fell the longer people traded: 15.5% of those who traded 2 to 50 days, 8.9% for 51 to 100 days, 6.8% for 101 to 200, 5.4% for 201 to 300 and 3.0% beyond 300⁶¹. It also says “Only 17 individuals (1.1% of 1,551) earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage (US$ 16 per day)”⁶¹. These are secondary, and the summary’s bank-teller share (0.5%) differs slightly from the abstract’s 0.4%, so the two may describe different versions of the paper.
• Taiwan, shares, 1992 to 2006. “The aggregate performance of day traders net of fees is negative in each of the 15 years that we study”, and “more that 75% of all day traders quit within two years”⁹. An earlier paper by the same group found “in the typical six month period, more than eight out of ten day traders lose money”¹⁰.
• India, shares, 2022 to 2023. The market regulator found “7 out of 10 individual intraday traders (71%) in equity cash segment incurred net loss” (the equity cash segment means ordinary shares), and “Proportion of loss-makers increased to 80% for traders with very frequent (more than 500 trades in a year) trading activity”¹². Trading more went with losing more often.
• India, futures and options, 2022 to 2024. Among more than 10 million individual traders, 93% lost, and “Only 1% of individual traders managed to earn profits exceeding ₹1 lakh, after adjusting for transaction costs”¹³. One lakh is 100,000 rupees. A news report of the same study puts the profitable share over the three years at 7.2%⁵⁹. This covers all such trading, not only same-day trades.

Milder figures, for wider groups

• Europe. The EU markets regulator said in 2018 that “74-89% of retail accounts typically lose money” on CFDs¹⁴. A CFD, or contract for difference, is the leveraged bet most European retail traders use for currencies and indices. Brokers must now print their own figure. Today IG shows 70% of retail accounts losing and eToro 50% to 51% (its page shows both)¹⁵¹⁶.
• US forex. Interactive Brokers must publish this each quarter. In the third quarter of 2026, 46.5% of its 23,094 US retail forex accounts were profitable, after commissions; the three quarters before were 45.5%, 46.1% and 43.9%¹⁷. “Profitable” means up by any amount in one quarter. These are not all day traders, and the figure does not follow the same accounts over time.
• US futures, 2021 to 2022. Staff of the US futures regulator, the CFTC, studied 36,538 retail traders, many of them in micro contracts such as the Micro Nasdaq-100. “In general, we find that retail traders lose money in futures markets. The median trader in our sample has estimated losses in the range of $100 - $200”, and “Traders in the 60th percentile of the P&L distribution break even”⁶⁰. So about 4 in 10 were at or above break-even. The limit: the data record positions held overnight, so same-day trades are not seen. This is the market the example tweet names, but not day trading itself.
• Older US samples. A study of 324 clients at a day trading firm, from February 1998 to October 1999, found “35.8 percent of traders made a positive net profit, 19.4 percent made more than $5,000, and 14.2 percent made more than $10,000”¹⁸. On the other side, 64.2% lost, 25.0% lost at least $5,000 and 13.0% lost more than $10,000¹⁸. “The most profitable trader made more than $197,000, and the least profitable trader lost more than $748,000”¹⁸. Average profit before costs was more than $8,000 and after costs “about -$750”, so fees took all of it and more¹⁸. The authors’ reading was that “the odds against being profitable are not overwhelming”¹⁸. We read the abstract only. A study of 1,386 accounts at a professional-grade broker over three months in 2000 found “about half” were profitable after commissions, with 26 accounts trading the firm’s own capital producing 21% of the winners’ gross profit¹⁹. Both samples are small, short and old, and the first ran during a rising market.

People who took a prop firm test

Two firms publish their own results, and they are the most current numbers we found.

Multiplying the middle two rows gives roughly 17% of Topstep starters and 11.5% of Tradeify starters receiving at least one payout of any size. That is our estimate, and it assumes the two percentages describe the same group, which neither firm states²⁰²². Tradeify adds that “participants may purchase multiple evaluations and resets, and initiated a median of 3 each over the period”²⁰. If each of the three cost between the $251 sale price and the $359 list price shown today, that is about $750 to $1,080 for the middle participant (our estimate). Resets may cost less, prices over the year are unknown, and we could not confirm the price per account size.

Topstep’s payout policy says, in a passage promoting its daily loss limit: “63% of Traders lost their Combine on day 1”²⁵. The Combine is its test. This is the firm’s own statement, with no period or definition given.

Neither firm says how large payouts are, or how they compare with the fees paid²⁰²². Two trade-press reports fill part of the gap, and both are secondary. Data from a software supplier covering over 300,000 accounts of 100,000 traders at 10 prop firms found “14% of traders passed the challenge”. About 45% of those who passed got a payout, which is 7% of all traders, “with the average payout being 4% of the plan size”²⁸. The article does not say which markets those firms offer. On a $50,000 plan that is about $2,000 (our sum). At another firm, the chief executive was reported as saying 5 to 10% pass and about 20% of those are paid²⁹. So results differ a great deal between firms.

People who bought a course

We found no course, community or mentor that publishes results for its students. The only evidence comes from US regulator cases, covered in “Who makes money from it” below. One seller’s own page says: “We do not track the typical results of our past or current customers”³⁴.

What the rules allow now

Trading your own money is legal in every market the tweets mention. In the US the bar fell this year, as Step 4 describes³⁴. Under the new rule a shortfall during the day must be covered promptly, and FINRA says repeated failure can restrict an account for up to 90 days⁵.

Leverage limits. The EU decided in 2018 to cap what retail customers can borrow on CFDs and to make brokers show their share of losing accounts¹⁴. The caps run from 30:1 on major currency pairs down to 2:1 on cryptocurrencies¹⁴. The UK regulator published its own permanent rules with the same 30:1 to 2:1 range on 1 July 2019, and in October 2020 announced a ban on selling crypto derivatives to retail customers⁴⁵.

Selling education. Teaching trading in general terms is allowed. In the US, a person who “for compensation or profit, advises others” on futures may need to register as a commodity trading advisor⁴². Advice shaped to one customer’s account, or managing other people’s money, is where registration is usually needed. We read the registration body’s page, not the rule itself, and did not check whether any account in our collection is registered.

Income claims. The US consumer regulator, the FTC, has brought cases against trading educators over earnings claims they could not back up. Three are described in the next section³⁰³⁷³⁹.

Promoting trading in the UK. The financial regulator, the FCA, said that in a week of action in June 2025 it “made 3 arrests”, “sent 7 cease and desist letters” and “issued 50 warning alerts” over unauthorised promotions on social media⁴³. It later charged three people over promoting currency CFD trading. “All three defendants pleaded not guilty”, and the hearings are set for 2027, so the case is pending and the allegations are undecided⁴⁴. They concern only the people charged.

Prop firm terms. Topstep’s terms say “An Express Funded Account is a Simulated Account” and “all fees are final, non-cancelable, and non-refundable”²³. Tradeify says “You’re trading on simulated capital”²⁰. A simulated account is a practice account: no order reaches the market, so payouts are made by the firm, not earned in the market. Topstep’s terms say a trader found to have broken its conduct rules “will not be entitled to receive any withdrawals”²³. Firms also change terms: Topstep traders who joined before 12 January 2026 kept 100% of their first $10,000, and later ones get the 90/10 split from the start²⁵.

A regulator’s case can fail. The US futures regulator, the CFTC, sued the prop firm My Forex Funds in 2023. According to a law firm’s summary, a restraining order entered on 29 August 2023 “placed the Defendant companies into receivership”, meaning under a court-appointed manager⁴⁰. In May 2025 a federal judge in New Jersey dismissed the case with prejudice (for good) and awarded the firm attorneys’ fees and costs as a sanction⁴⁰. This followed a court-appointed Special Master’s finding that the regulator had made “false representations” to the court: it had described CAD $31.5 million of transfers as going to an unidentified account when they were tax payments⁴⁰. The dismissal was a penalty for the regulator’s conduct. It was not a ruling on the firm’s business, and the allegations were never upheld. We could not open the CFTC’s own releases.

The platforms. X’s rules ban “scam tactics” but say X “does not intervene in financial disputes” such as “disputed refunds from individuals or brands”⁴⁸. Whop, which hosts one of these communities, lists “making deceptive earnings claims” among prohibited conduct in its terms⁴⁹. We found no data on how either rule is enforced against trading communities. X’s page opened for us once today and refused two later attempts, so those two quotes were not re-confirmed.

The standing US warning. The markets regulator, the SEC, wrote in 2005: “Day traders typically suffer severe financial losses in their first months of trading” and “Don’t believe advertising claims that promise quick and sure profits from day trading”⁴⁷. The page dates from April 2005 and gives no figures.

Who makes money from it

The accounts that promote it. Our collection file records 8 of the 11 accounts as showing something tied to the claim: two trading communities (one on Whop with a listed price⁵¹), three coaching or education offers, one set of chart indicators, one trading model, and one free YouTube channel¹. One of them also carries a prop firm code¹. Three show nothing for sale, including the “$400 a day” account¹. These labels were made when the tweets were collected. X refused our agents today, so we could not re-read the profiles.

We could open one storefront. The Triton Trades pages on Whop list “Triton Trades Premium” at “$150 / month”, with the headline “Learn to become a Profitable Futures Trader”, and a chart indicator, “CISD Model+”, at “$49 / month”⁵¹. The store’s page data also lists a product titled “Triton Trades Free Access”⁵¹. The pages show 29 ratings and no member count⁵¹. We did not check the trading results in the tweet. Jonatan Randin, whose tweet offers his system free, publishes a newsletter with a subscribe button and no price shown⁵⁸. We found no storefront or price for the other named accounts.

Prop firms and the people who refer to them. The firm collects a fee from everyone who starts a test. By the firms’ own figures a minority of participants receive any payout²⁰²². Neither firm publishes total fees collected against total payouts. Tradeify’s affiliate page says: “Tradeify gives affiliates 15% commission for our Growth/Advanced plans” and “We also give affiliates 5% for evaluation resets”²¹. A reset is what a trader pays to start again after failing. So a referrer is paid when a follower buys, and again when the follower fails and tries again.

Course sellers. Three FTC cases show the pattern. Each concerns only the company named in it, and each ended in a settlement, not a trial verdict.

• Warrior Trading (2022). The complaint named the company and its founder. The FTC alleged that customers paid hundreds or thousands of dollars and that “the vast majority of customer accounts actually lost money”³⁰. The case ended in a “stipulated final order”, one agreed between the FTC and the company and not decided at trial. In the FTC’s words, it means the company “must pay $3 million to consumers harmed by its false earnings claims”³⁰. The FTC also published a consumer alert about the case³². The complaint alleged that in the firm’s practice simulator “74% of the accounts lost money, and only 10% earned more than $90”, and listed prices of $997 for 30 days or $4,297 for 90 days³¹. The FTC later sent “more than $2.9 million to 20,402 people”³³, about $142 each (our sum). We did not find the company’s reply to the case at source. Its own disclaimer page says “We do not track the typical results of our past or current customers”³⁴, and its site today says “Most day traders lose money” and that its founder’s “results are NOT typical”³⁶.
• Online Trading Academy (2020). The FTC alleged the company took in more than $370 million over six years for training costing up to $50,000, and that data “suggest that the vast majority of OTA’s customers do not make any money”³⁷. The settlement “includes a monetary judgment of $362 million”, partly suspended because the defendants could not pay³⁸. We did not find the company’s reply.
• RagingBull (2022). A $2.425 million settlement. The FTC alleged the company “did not track its customers’ trading results and had no basis on which to make any claims about how much subscribers could make”³⁹. We did not find the company’s reply.

Brokers and tools. A broker is paid per trade whatever the result⁵⁶. TradingView’s partner programme says “Earn up to $400 for each eligible new subscriber”⁵³; we did not confirm that any collected account uses such a link. Whop charges sellers “2.7% + $0.30” per card payment⁵⁰.

The other side of the trade. India’s regulator shows who was on the winning side while 93% of individuals lost. Trading firms and foreign funds booked gross profits of 33,000 crore and 28,000 crore rupees in one year, “with 97% of FPI profits and 96% of proprietary trader profits coming from algorithmic trading”¹³. A crore is 10 million. FPI means foreign portfolio investor. Algorithmic trading is trading done by computer programs.

The upside

Success here is real, measured, and rare.

The best evidence that skill exists. In Taiwan’s complete records, “about 13% earn profits net of fees in the typical year”, but “less than 1% of day traders (1,000 out of 360,000) are able to outperform consistently”¹¹. On a looser measure, traders with a profitable record and more than 40 days of day trading in the past year earned enough to cover costs; they “constitute less than 3% of all day traders on an average day”⁹. The same paper says “the fraction of profitable day traders is consistently about 5%”⁹. So a good year is not rare. A good year that repeats is.

The best documented individual. Ross Cameron, founder of Warrior Trading, publishes yearly broker statements and an accountant’s report. The page states: “Starting Balance on January 1 2017: $583.15 Total Gains as of the end of December 2025: $18,810,638”³⁵. This is his own publication. We did not open the accountant’s report, and the site says “Profit figures may represent gross or net gains”³⁵. His company also sells memberships from $997 at list price ($598 in a sale on the day we looked) up to $3,997 for its main programme ($2,398 in the sale)³⁶. The FTC complaint alleged that between January 2018 and March 2021 the defendants “generated tens of millions of dollars in revenue” from such programmes³¹.

Checked competition results. The US Investing Championship, a real-money contest, lists eight-month returns for 2026 of up to +1,038% in its stock division and +2,854% in futures and options, among 707 entrants⁵⁴. Our agents counted 95 listed results (71 in the $20,000 championship and 24 in a separate section for accounts of $1 million or more), all gains, so the page shows winners only. The page does not say how long positions are held, so these are not shown to be same-day trading results. A press-style article says 17% of entrants were in profit at mid-year⁵⁵; that is secondary and we could not confirm it with the organiser.

Prop firm payouts. Topstep states “7,000+ Traders paid weekly” and “$1.5B+ Paid out to prop firm traders” on its home page²², and “$1.4B+ Paid out to traders” on its instant payouts page²⁶. The two figures differ, perhaps because the pages are updated at different times, and both are the firm’s own. Tradeify states over $350 million²⁰. None comes with a count of people paid or of fees collected.

The top tenth and top hundredth. No large, recent source gives incomes for these groups. The nearest figures: in Brazil about 3 in 100 persistent newcomers made anything and 4 in 1,000 beat $54 a day⁸. In India’s derivatives data the top 1 in 100 made more than one lakh rupees over three years¹³. In the US sample of 324 traders from 1998 to 1999, about 1 in 5 made more than $5,000 and about 1 in 7 more than $10,000 over up to 21 months; the best made more than $197,000 and the worst lost more than $748,000¹⁸. That sample is small, old and from a rising market.

A realistic good first year. This is our estimate from the figures above. The most likely result is a loss of fees and some capital. A good result on the prop route is passing a test and receiving one or a few payouts in the low thousands of dollars, against several hundred dollars of fees²⁰²²²⁸. A good result with your own money is ending the year slightly ahead after costs. About 13 in 100 of all day traders did that in a typical year in Taiwan, a group that includes the experienced¹¹. Among newcomers in Brazil the share ahead after costs fell from about 15 in 100 for those who traded under 50 days to 3 in 100 for those who traded more than 300 (secondary)⁶¹.

Profit that repeats after costs was reached by fewer than 1 in 100 of a year’s day traders in Taiwan (about 1,000 of 360,000)¹¹, and by under 3 in 100 of those trading on a given day on a looser measure⁹. As a share of everyone who starts it is lower still, because three quarters quit within two years⁹. Neither figure says the profit was enough to live on: for Taiwan’s top group, “day trading represents only 6% of total capital at risk”, so day trading was a small part of a larger portfolio¹¹. In Brazil well under 1 in 100 persistent newcomers out-earned a bank teller⁸.

What it takes to compete

A record of your own. In the Taiwan data the strongest predictor of future profit is past profit. The paper says “heavy traders with past success and experience, who are willing to short sell and concentrate in a few stocks have the greatest probability of turning a profit”¹¹. Short selling is betting that a price will fall. That describes a specialist who trades a lot in a narrow field. Nothing we found shows that buying a system, a set of indicators or a membership moves a person into that group.

Money you can lose, and time. Topstep’s own risk page says its founder “lost three separate $30,000 trading accounts” early in his career²⁷. The SEC says many day traders “never graduate to profit-making status”⁴⁷. In Taiwan, three quarters quit within two years⁹. Plan for a losing start, and for being at a screen during market hours.

Enough size for the income wanted. Step 5 shows that at the edge of Taiwan’s best 500 traders, $400 a day needs about $142,000 of positions opened each day (our estimate)¹¹. Leverage lets a small account trade that size, but the daily swings then come at that size too, against a small balance. A trader with more money of their own can earn the same amount with less risk of being wiped out.

An edge against machines. In India’s derivatives market the institutions on the winning side made almost all their profit with algorithms¹³. That is mostly options and not only same-day trading, and some individuals there did profit⁵⁹. But it shows who a person with a chart is trading against.

What it costs to be competitive. Commissions, at $0.09 to $0.39 per side for micro contracts plus exchange fees⁶. Charting at about 13 to 200 a month when billed yearly, plus data⁵². On the prop route, $49 to $199 a month per attempt and a median of three attempts at one firm²⁰²⁴. A course or community if you choose one: we saw $49 and $150 a month at one storefront, and at one course seller memberships from $997 at list price ($598 in a sale on the day we looked) up to $3,997 for the main programme³⁶⁵¹.

How to tell early which side you are on. These are our suggestions, built on the studies above.

• Keep a full log of every trade, with fees. The question is whether you are ahead after costs.
• Give it a real sample. In Taiwan the traders who went on beating costs were those in profit over their whole record after fees and who had day traded on more than 40 days in the past year⁹. Forty days is a minimum of activity, not proof of skill.
• Set a budget and a stopping point before you begin, in money and in months. In Taiwan, traders with long losing records kept trading⁹; in India, “Despite consecutive years of losses, more than 75% of loss-making traders continued trading in F&O” (futures and options)¹³.
• Watch whether trading more helps. In India the most frequent traders lost more often¹².
• Treat a practice account or a backtest as a first filter only. Regulators require the warning in Step 9 for a reason⁴¹.
• Before paying anyone, ask for what none of the collected tweet texts gives: account size, dollars risked per trade, every losing day, and whether the account is real money¹.

What we did not verify

• The tweets. Texts are cut off in our collection. We did not open the tweets on X or view their images, videos or threads. X refused our agents, so what each profile shows comes from our collection file. Our agents disagreed on whether 7 or 8 of the 11 accounts show an offer; counting the file’s labels gives 8. One of the two communities in that count is recorded without a price, so we do not know whether it is paid. The file also records an “exchange affiliation” for one account; we could not confirm it and left it out.
• The named accounts’ results. We did not check the “+48.7R” claim or its recordings, the “71% winners” figures or whether they are a backtest, or any linked proof. Whop refund terms were not shown. The free product on the Whop store was read from the page’s data, not from a visible price card.
• The Brazil study. We read abstracts only. The group sizes and the shares by days traded come from a summary on another site⁶¹; the research site SSRN and the university’s repository refused us.
• The Taiwan and US studies. Three Taiwan papers were read as PDFs. The two older US studies were read as an abstract and an undated working paper. The CFTC study sees overnight positions only. The Taiwan figures count people day trading in a year or on a day; no source gives the share of everyone who ever started.
• Prop firms. All pass rates and payout totals are the firms’ own. No source gives the size of a typical payout or the fees paid per person. Which Topstep plan the higher prices belong to, and Tradeify’s price per account size, were unclear. How payouts are funded was not examined, and neither firm publishes fees collected against payouts made. Topstep’s “63%” figure has no stated period or definition.
• Prices. NinjaTrader figures are from its European page with column labels missing. TradingView’s currency was unclear. We did not price market data.
• Regulator cases. We read FTC press releases and one complaint, not the court orders. We found no company reply at source for any of the three, and did not open the Warrior Trading order to see what it says about admitting the allegations. The My Forex Funds account rests on a law firm summary and trade press. Reports that seven UK influencers were fined in February 2026 are secondary and we left them out of the text. A 2022 SEC case against social media stock promoters was left out because we did not check its outcome.
• The FINRA rule change. How many brokers still apply the $25,000 rule is unknown.
• X’s rules. The page opened once today through a reader service and refused two later attempts, so its two quotes were read once and not re-confirmed⁴⁸.
• The championship standings. The count of 95 listed results is our agents’ count, and the page does not say what kind of trading the entrants do⁵⁴.
• Not researched. Crypto day trading specifically (fees, leverage, outcomes). Current loss figures at most brokers. US futures tax rules and tax anywhere else. Whether any collected account is registered with a regulator. Any audited record of $10,000 a month from day trading held for a full year.
• First-person accounts. None with usable numbers was found.

Sources

1. Does It Pay collection of 11 tweets on this scheme, collected 2026-10-06. Read at source on 2026-10-10 (local file; tweets not opened on X).
2. New York Stock Exchange, “Holidays and trading hours”, https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars, 2026 and 2027 calendar. Read at source on 2026-10-10; the day counts are our estimate.
3. FINRA, Regulatory Notice 26-10, https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/notices/26-10, 2026-04-20. Read at source on 2026-10-10 (through the r.jina.ai reader).
4. FINRA, “Frequent Intraday Trading: Understanding the Basics” investor page, https://www.finra.org/investors/investing/investment-products/stocks/day-trading, 2026-06-04. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
5. FINRA, “Intraday margin requirements” investor insight, https://www.finra.org/investors/insights/intraday-margin-requirements, 2026-04-20. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
6. NinjaTrader, pricing page (European version), https://ninjatrader.com/eu/pricing/, undated. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
7. CME Group, Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract specifications, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/nasdaq/micro-e-mini-nasdaq-100.contractSpecs.html, and E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract specifications, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/nasdaq/e-mini-nasdaq-100.contractSpecs.html, undated. Read at source on 2026-10-10 (through the r.jina.ai reader; the direct route was refused).
8. Chague, De-Losso and Giovannetti, “Day Trading for a Living?”, FGV working paper 525, abstract at https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:fgv:eesptd:525, 2020-02 (2019 version at https://ideas.repec.org/p/spa/wpaper/2019wpecon47.html). Read at source on 2026-10-10 (abstract only).
9. Barber, Lee, Liu, Odean and Zhang, “Do Day Traders Rationally Learn About Their Ability?”, https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day%20Traders/Day%20Trading%20and%20Learning%20110217.pdf, 2017-10. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
10. Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean, earlier Taiwan day trading paper, https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day%20Traders/Day%20Trade%20040330.pdf, 2004-05. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
11. Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean, Taiwan day trading skill paper, https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day%20Traders/Day%20Trading%20Skill%20110523.pdf, 2011-05. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
12. Securities and Exchange Board of India, press release PR No.13/2024 on intraday traders, https://www.sebi.gov.in/sebi_data/attachdocs/jul-2024/1721818619980.pdf, 2024-07-24. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
13. Securities and Exchange Board of India, press release PR No.22/2024 on futures and options traders, https://www.sebi.gov.in/sebi_data/attachdocs/sep-2024/1727086965496.pdf, 2024-09-23. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
14. European Securities and Markets Authority, “ESMA agrees to prohibit binary options and restrict CFDs”, https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-agrees-prohibit-binary-options-and-restrict-cfds-protect-retail-investors, 2018-03-27. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
15. IG, UK site risk warning, https://www.ig.com/uk, as served 2026-10-10. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
16. eToro, general risk disclosure, https://www.etoro.com/customer-service/general-risk-disclosure/, as served 2026-10-10. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
17. Interactive Brokers, retail forex customer performance, https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/about/performanceCustomerForex.php, Q3 2026. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
18. Jordan and Diltz, “The Profitability of Day Traders”, Financial Analysts Journal, abstract at https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/ufajxx/v59y2003i6p85-94.html, 2003. Read at source on 2026-10-10 (abstract only).
19. Garvey and Murphy, working paper on active traders, https://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/Users/MurphyA/Active%20Traders.pdf, undated (data from 2000). Read at source on 2026-10-10.
20. Tradeify, home page and footer disclosure, https://tradeify.co/, statistics calculated 2026-08-09. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
21. Tradeify, affiliates page, https://tradeify.co/affiliates, undated. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
22. Topstep, home page and footer disclosure, https://www.topstep.com/, statistics for January to December 2025. Read at source on 2026-10-10; the “any payout” shares are our estimate.
23. Topstep, terms of use, https://www.topstep.com/terms-of-use/, updated 2026-09-21. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
24. Topstep, pricing page, https://www.topstep.com/topstep-prop, undated. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
25. Topstep, payout policy, https://help.topstep.com/en/articles/8284233-topstep-payout-policy, undated. Read at source on 2026-10-10 (through the r.jina.ai reader).
26. Topstep, instant payouts page, https://www.topstep.com/instant-payouts, undated. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
27. Topstep, risk disclosure, https://www.topstep.com/risk-disclosure, undated. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
28. Finance Magnates, “Only 7% of 300,000 prop trading accounts achieved payouts”, copy at https://www.tradingview.com/news/financemagnates:3a251e333094b:0-exclusive-only-7-of-300-000-prop-trading-accounts-achieved-payouts/, 2024-09-18. Secondary.
29. Finance Magnates, report on The Funded Trader’s pass rates, https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/only-1-in-20-traders-pass-prop-firm-challenges-reports-the-funded-trader/, 2025-03-18. Secondary.
30. US Federal Trade Commission, press release on Warrior Trading, https://www.ftc.gov/node/78867, 2022-04-19. Read at source on 2026-10-10 (through the r.jina.ai reader).
31. US Federal Trade Commission, complaint against Warrior Trading, https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ftc_gov/pdf/2023198WarriorTradingComplaint_0.pdf, 2022-04-19. Read at source on 2026-10-10 (through the r.jina.ai reader).
32. US Federal Trade Commission, consumer alert on Warrior Trading, https://consumer.ftc.gov/consumer-alerts/2022/04/day-trading-earnings-werent-payday-warrior-trading-promised, 2022-04-25. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
33. US Federal Trade Commission, refunds to Warrior Trading customers, https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2023/01/ftc-returns-more-29-million-consumers-harmed-warrior-trading, 2023-01-10. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
34. Warrior Trading, disclaimer, https://www.warriortrading.com/disclaimer/, undated. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
35. Warrior Trading, founder’s published earnings page, https://www.warriortrading.com/ross-camerons-verified-day-trading-earnings/, undated (covers 2017 to 2025). Read at source on 2026-10-10.
36. Warrior Trading, home page, https://www.warriortrading.com/, as served 2026-10-10. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
37. US Federal Trade Commission, press release on Online Trading Academy, https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2020/02/ftc-sues-online-trading-academy-running-investment-training-scheme, 2020-02-12. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
38. US Federal Trade Commission, Online Trading Academy settlement, https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2020/09/ftc-settlement-requires-online-trading-academy-forgive-consumer-debt-principals-turn-over-millions, 2020-09-15. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
39. US Federal Trade Commission, RagingBull settlement, https://www.ftc.gov/node/78598, 2022-03-08 (refunds at https://www.ftc.gov/node/80608, 2023-03-06). Read at source on 2026-10-10 (through the r.jina.ai reader).
40. Willkie Farr and Gallagher, note on the dismissal of the My Forex Funds case, https://complianceconcourse.willkie.com/articles/new-jersey-federal-judge-dismisses-forex-case-with-prejudice-and-awards-attorney-fees/, 2025-05-26; and Finance Magnates, https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/my-forex-funds-parent-defeats-cftc-in-court-as-judge-imposes-sanctions/, 2025-05-14. Secondary.
41. US Code of Federal Regulations, 17 CFR 4.41, https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/section-4.41, current as of 2026-10-08. Read at source on 2026-10-10 (through the r.jina.ai reader).
42. National Futures Association, “Commodity trading advisor” registration page, https://www.nfa.futures.org/registration-membership/who-has-to-register/cta.html, undated. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
43. UK Financial Conduct Authority, “FCA leads international crackdown on illegal finfluencers”, https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-leads-international-crackdown-illegal-finfluencers, 2025-06-06. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
44. UK Financial Conduct Authority, first court appearance of three people charged, https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/first-court-appearance-three-finfluencers-charged-fca-led-global-crackdown-illegal-promotions, 2025-09-10, updated 2025-10-13. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
45. UK Financial Conduct Authority, contracts for difference page, https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/contracts-for-difference, updated 2025-06-13. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
46. US Internal Revenue Service, Topic 429 and Topic 409, https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc429 and https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409, reviewed 2026-09-24. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
47. US Securities and Exchange Commission, “Day Trading: Your Dollars at Risk”, https://www.sec.gov/about/reports-publications/investor-publications/day-trading-your-dollars-at-risk, 2005-04-19 (last reviewed 2005-04-20). Read at source on 2026-10-10.
48. X, rules page served at the former financial scam policy address, https://help.x.com/en/rules-and-policies/financial-scam, undated. Read at source once on 2026-10-10 (through the r.jina.ai reader); two later attempts were refused, so the quotes were not re-confirmed.
49. Whop, terms of service, https://whop.com/tos/, 2026-10-09. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
50. Whop, fees page, https://docs.whop.com/fees, undated. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
51. Whop, Triton Trades storefront, https://whop.com/tritontrades/triton-trades-premium/, indicator page, https://whop.com/tritontrades/cisd-model/, and store page, https://whop.com/tritontrades/, as served 2026-10-10. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
52. TradingView, pricing page, https://www.tradingview.com/pricing/, as served 2026-10-10. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
53. TradingView, partner programme, https://www.tradingview.com/partner-program/, as served 2026-10-10. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
54. US Investing Championship, 2026 standings, https://financial-competitions.com/, standings to 2026-08-31. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
55. Brief Glance, article on mid-year championship results, https://briefglance.com/articles/the-17-solution-elite-traders-struggle-as-market-soars-in-us-championship, 2026-07-28. Secondary.
56. FINRA, Rule 2270 day trading risk disclosure statement, https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/rulebooks/finra-rules/2270, as published 2026-10-10. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
57. Does It Pay, sums on this page marked “our estimate” (trading days, required returns, fee totals, prop firm chains), 2026-10-10. Estimate.
58. RLZ Trading Newsletter, about page, https://rlztrading.substack.com/about, 2026. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
59. Outlook Business, report on the SEBI futures and options study, https://www.outlookbusiness.com/markets/fo-frenzy-over-93-retail-investors-lost-average-rs-2-lakh-in-three-years-says-sebi, 2024-09-23. Secondary.
60. Ferko, Mixon and Onur, “Retail Traders in Futures Markets”, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Office of the Chief Economist, https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-02/Retail_Traders_Futures_V2_website_ada.pdf, 2024-02-15. Read at source on 2026-10-10.
61. Quantpedia, summary of Chague, De-Losso and Giovannetti, “Day Trading for a Living?”, https://quantpedia.com/?p=4771, undated. Secondary.

Corrections

If you are quoted or named on this page and think something is wrong, want your reply shown beside it, or want to be removed, write to [email protected]. We aim to reply within 14 days, and always within one month. Factual errors are corrected with a dated note here. A sentence that is seriously disputed comes down while we check it.

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